The Iranian Nuclear Crisis Endgame

November 12, 2012

As most of you already know there is a major crisis brewing in the Middle East regarding Iran’s nuclear program. The West views Iran as a hostile and unpredictable theocracy bent on destroying Israel. Saudi Arabia considers Iran a threat to Sunni regional domination. Iran claims it is enriching Uranium for peaceful purposes and that it’s nuclear program has been targeted for destruction by the West. There is little doubt that the assassination of Iranian scientists was conducted by Western powers as a warning to the Iranian regime. Yet in spite of these assassinations, and crippling sanctions Iran continues to enrich Uranium. So what will be the end result?

Russia and China are both dependent on Iran. Russia due to Iran’s regional significance, China due to Iran’s oil production. Iran has been a Russian Allie since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. The problem is that Iran’s theocratic regime does not fall under the same ideological guidelines as Russia, or China. Russia may question Iran’s willingness to comply to Russian demands. Certainly Putin questions whether he will be able to restrain a nuclear Iran. Neither the West nor Russian and China want a nuclear arms race in the middle east. Russia however, sees Iran as a leverage against Western powers implementing their new missile shield in Europe.  President Obama has already said that he will be more flexible on this issue after the election (Ironically, he seemed confident of victory even back in March). Now that he has been reelected, president Obama will be looking for a compromise.

President Obama will compromise on the missile shield if Russia agrees to regime change in Iran. The problem is that Russia currently has leverage with Iran as the US is war weary. As long as There is this leverage Putin knows he can bargain for more. So how far will President Obama compromise before Russia accepts an agreement? There is no question that if the missile defense program is scrapped, and regime change occurs, the new Iranian regime would remain sympathetic to Russia and China. Russia would not accept any other position from a new Iranian government. The problem with this is that Russia does not trust Western powers. If the Iranian regime is toppled, there are no guarantees that Western powers will not replace the regime with a new regime that is sympathetic towards the West.

I predict that President Obama will compromise on much more than just missile defense. President Obama will bargain for Putin’s trust and in so doing will cost the West it’s influence in various regional powers such as Greece and the Balkans, possibly even parts of Africa.The new Russian backed Iranian regime will inherit sectarian conflict from Sunni hegemony which they will ruthlessly crush much like Assad is currently doing. Only difference being that the new Iranian regime will be successful because Western powers will not interfere. When it is all over President Obama will have sold out the West as well as those who look to the West for hope in exchange for peace that will not last long. Of course his administration will spin it as though he was a keen diplomat that managed to bring compromise. Then the Democrats will dump the blame on the next Republican that inherits this foreign policy fiasco.

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